Recession 2023?

Chapman’s Business forecast joined the consistent chorus of economists anticipating a mild to moderate recession by mid to late 2023. One common predictor used was the drop of the 10 year Treasury Bond below the Federal Funds Rate. A cross point for these two indicators has been followed by a recession since 1969. The timing is between 6-18 months. It is worth noting that their prediction of the pace of the Fed Rate increase is higher than the prediction of other economists. Almost all see a continued rise of the Fed Rate. 

Residential construction starts can be argued as a counter to many of the indicators. Growth has been slow but has still been growth. California saw a 5 year high in residential permits. The predictions are that this will start to go negative in 2023.

A good investment during a recession? Owning a home has still beaten inflation and has created an historically strong fortress against recessionary pressures. A median home price in Orange County has seen an average annual price growth of 5.2% from 1991 through 2022. It is better than almost all other growth indicators for your money, and even greater if you leveraged a down payment for the price appreciation. This has been true for any 10 year period in the study.

Please give us a call at Premier Funding Network to answer any of your mortgage questions at 714-283-9900