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Economy Notes From the Final Numbers for 2023

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed the December 2023 inflation increase of 0.3% over November prices, led mostly by increases in shelter, gasoline, and electricity. This closed 2023 with a 3.4% inflation rate (unadjusted), much lower than the 6.5%...
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More Signs That Homeownership Build Wealth

It is worth repeating the truism that owning a home is the best way to secure wealth. This is an easy statement to believe in retrospect but often put into doubt during times of rapid price appreciation when the stronger...
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Inflation Watch & Mortgage Rates

Disinflation continued to be the trend in 2023. The Consumer Price Index year-over-year dropped to 3.1% in November, with anticipation that end of year figures will be lower as fuel, auto, travel prices have dropped. This is good news for hopes of...
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Where Will The Economy Go In 2024?

Many economists predict a slowing of the economy in 2024, with the chance of a mild recession. Bill Conerly (Forbes.com 12/27/2023), lays out retrospective reasons why we avoided the widely predicted recession in 2023, and the strengths/weaknesses of standard measure used to look...
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Economy Watch and the Inverted Yield Curve

You may have been reading headlines in financial news for the past several months about how the yield curve has inverted, warning of a pending recession. The inversion happens when Short Term government bonds sell for a higher yield than...
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Inflation Watch

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4% nationwide in September for an annualized rate of 3.7%. This was a drop month over month of 0.2%. Shelter and gasoline continued to be the driver for price increases....
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Inflation Watch and Interest Rates

The inflationary hit on household saving accounts should start to ease for the second half of 2023. The Wall Street Journal 7/13/23 article points to a general decline in inflation over a broad array of consumer goods, led by the...
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Interest Rates Have Room for Adjustment

Mortgage interest rates have a larger than normal cushion over the 10 year treasury bond. First American Title’s Odeta Kushi pointed out in the May 18 REconomy Podcast that the historic gap since 1972 has been 170 basis points (1.7%)....
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Inflation Watch

The Consumer Price Index moved up 0.1% in May. This represents a 3.2% year/year rate, but is only 1.2% if annualized. The biggest decrease was 11.5% for energy prices, countered somewhat by a 5% rise in food prices. Shelter prices...
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